Taiwan’s growing sense of national identity has further complicated the situation
The possibility of war between China and Taiwan has long been a concern, but recent developments suggest that the risk is growing at an alarming rate. While diplomatic efforts continue, the geopolitical landscape has shifted in ways that make conflict increasingly likely. China has intensified its military presence around Taiwan, conducting largescale drills that simulate a blockade and invasion.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has modernized its forces, boasting the world’s largest navy and an arsenal of ballistic missiles designed to neutralize Taiwan’s defences. These actions signal Beijing’s readiness to use force if necessary. Taiwan’s growing sense of national identity has further complicated the situation. Polls indicate that fewer Taiwanese people support unification with China, making peaceful integration unlikely. Meanwhile, Beijing has made it clear that any formal declaration of independence would trigger military action. The gap between Taiwan’s aspirations and China’s demands is widening, leaving little room for compromise.
The US and its allies have reaffirmed their commitment to Taiwan’s defence, increasing arms sales and military cooperation. This has led to heightened tensions, with China viewing these actions as direct interference in its internal affairs. The risk of miscalculation—where one side overestimates its position and triggers a conflict—has never been higher. A war over Taiwan would send shockwaves through the global economy. Taiwan is a critical hub for semiconductor production, supplying about 60% of the world’s microchips.
A disruption in this industry would cripple supply chains, affecting everything from smartphones to military systems. While war is not inevitable, the conditions for conflict are more pronounced than ever. Military buildups, political rigidity, and international rivalries have created a volatile situation where a single misstep could lead to war. The world must tread carefully, as the consequences of such a conflict would be catastrophic. * Nephew of the Dalai Lama, Khedroob Thondup is a geopolitical analyst.